The Crystal Ball • Predictive Analytics

THE xWIF ENGINE

Standard fantasy scoring is cruel and binary: it rewards execution. But scouting rewards intent. Welcome to Expected WIF (xWIF), our predictive engine built to find players generating elite volume who are about to explode (or regress).

The 4 Pillars of Projection

npxG

Non-Penalty Expected Goals

Removes the "fluke" of penalty kicks to show true open-play dominance.

NFL Scouting EquivalentProjected Rushing / Receiving Touchdowns

xAG

Expected Assisted Goals

Measures the quality of passes leading to shots, rewarding elite playmakers.

NFL Scouting EquivalentProjected Passing Touchdowns

xT

Expected Threat

Calculates how much a pass or carry increases scoring probability.

NFL Scouting EquivalentMoving the Chains / Air Yards / PPR

xGOT

Expected Goals on Target

Evaluates shot quality after impact. Separates elite finishers from high-volume wasters.

NFL Scouting EquivalentCompletion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)

Real Data Case Study (Overperformance)

Harry Kane (Bayern München)

Role: RB1 (Goal-Line Back)

Execution (Real WIF)

36 Goals ScoredTotal: 216.0 pts

5 AssistsTotal: 20.0 pts

Total Output / 9016.3 FPPG

Prediction (xWIF Outlook)

0.90 npxG / 90OVERPERFORMING

13.7 xWIF / 90-2.6 DELTA

War Room Verdict: SELL HIGHKane is converting chances at a historic, unsustainable rate. His WIF is massive (16.3), but his underlying telemetry (13.7 xWIF) shows he is due for a regression. Defenses will stack the box. Cash out while his value is artificially inflated.